Locker Up - How Good Does the Titans Quarterback Need To Be in 2013?

Much of the Titans offseason talk has included discussion of third year quarterback Jake Locker, his "accuracy issue" and whether Ryan Fitzpatrick could push him for a starting job. In my "hot seat" list I did include Locker for reasons that are readily apparent in the article. Clearly Locker has to improve on his 2012 season. Having said that, I do believe there is potential for expectations to be too high for Locker. Why do you ask? Let me explain.

Locker was drafted in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft and played sparingly his first season. With limited snaps however, he looked good.

I think we often forget how good Locker looked that year and how excited everyone was about what they saw in his performance. Sadly, his performance in 2012 was marred by injury, not only to himself but on the offensive line. Add to that inconsistency in the running game and some inexcusable drops from his receivers and his 2012 looks bad.

Two things in particular concern me about Locker's 2012 and neither really have to do with "accuracy" per se. One, he had 11 batted passes and that didn't appear to be an issue in 2011 (he had 2). His release point does seem a little low and how much of that was attributed to guarding and his left shoulder injury is a question mark for me. Regardless, that is an area he must work on.

OUCH

Locker took 5 sacks in his rookie campaign out of 76 dropbacks. In 2012 he took 25 sacks out of 370 dropbacks. His most significant injury occurred when he was sacked by Glover Quin. Of course, this isn't all Locker's fault. Chris Johnson needs to block better for one. I also think former offensive coordinator Chris Palmers' system contributed. Still, Locker has to recognize pressure better and operate to protect himself and the football. He also fumbled the football 4 times (all of them lost) in 2012 usually at inopportune times (is there ever an opportune time?).

All of this leads to the question of how good Locker needs to be in 2013 to satisfy the coaching staff and owner Bud Adams. Really what the fans think isn't that important. They say winning cures all and certainly winning more games in 2013 will help. Here is where I think the Titans would like to see improvement in 2013.

TIME OF POSSESSION

The Titans time of possession stats in 2012 were beyond atrocious. I wrote about it extensively in my game blogs if you are interested. While not all a product of the passing game that certainly contributed and this is a stat I believe without a shadow of a doubt the Titans want to see improved.

RED ZONE SUCCESS

The Titans ranked 22nd in the NFL in red zone scoring percentage based on touchdowns only. This is down significantly from 2011 and it is beyond embarrassing that they ranked only 25% efficiency in the red zone at LP Field. Not coincidentally, they also finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring points at 23.

PASSING EFFICIENCY

I labeled this efficiency and not accuracy with good reason. I have said time and again I think the accuracy issue is overblown. I think the Titans would far prefer to see less sacks, less batted passes and more production than they care about whether Locker throws a pretty pass. The first I have alluded to but one more stat I find discouraging from Locker's 2012 season is that his yards per attempt fell dramatically. Of course, the 2011 season is a small sample size and 6.9 isn't terrible. Locker ranked 18th amongst starting NFL quarterbacks in yards per pass thrown but dang if that 8.2 from 2011 isn't enticing. The Titans passing game ranked 22nd in the NFL in passing yards per game.

OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION

Obviously this is a catchall phrase and area but really if the Titans score points and win games isn't the goal accomplished? The Titans in 2012 finished in the lower half of the NFL in points, passing yards, rushing yards and total offensive yards. Per Football Outsiders, the Titans offense was ranked 29th in the league in offensive efficiency. Offensive production doesn't occur in a vacuum and in order to have a successful one the Titans must operate on all cylinders. Of course he was injured, but I expect the Titans to make better use of Locker's ability to operate out of the pocket and make plays in 2013 whether passing or running.

What are your expectations for Jake Locker in 2013?


 

Matchups To Watch on MNF - Jets at Titans

While the Titans are now eliminated from playoff contention, the Jets are still very much in the wildcard hunt for the playoffs in the AFC. The Jets are 6 and 7 (3-2 on the road) and have a 3 game win streak at LP Field. The Titans are a measly 2-4 at home this season but can play the spoiler role.

Quarterback Mark Sanchez is back under center, but the passing game still remains an issue for the Jets. While it doesn't appear Rex Ryan is going to insert Tim Tebow into the lineup, the circus atmosphere still very much surrounds the team. Ryan certainly deserves some criticism for some of the problems the Jets have faced, but you have to give him some credit for keeping the team focused enough to win 6 games and remain in the AFC playoff picture.

Speaking of circus, the Jets just brought back wide receiver Braylon Edwards, who recently criticized the team calling them "idiots" for the handing of Sanchez. Given that, the decision may or may not justify his words.

 In any event, Edwards, recently released by Seattle for non production, probably will not provide a big impact.

Sanchez does love him some Edwards though so the Titans would be well served to devote some attention to him. However, the main guy to watch and their leading wide receiver is slot receiver Jeremy Kerley. Linebackers Zach Brown, Akeem Ayers and cornerback Jason McCourty could have their hands full with  him.

In preparing for my radio spot to talk about the Jets game, I took a good look at the Jets and one of the bigger surprises I found was how well the offensive line was blocking particularly in the run game. Running back Shonn Greene has pretty amazing stats considering how poorly the passing game has gone.

The Jets feature two undrafted free agents on their offensive line in the form of Austin Howard and Brandon Moore and they are having really nice seasons. Center Nick Mangold keeps doing his thang and is having a great year as well.

Austin Howard

Brandon Moore

Nick Mangold

Greene does particularly well running off center, right guard and right tackle so one of the better matchups to watch will be Derrick Morgan versus that part of the run game. Morgan is assuredly the Titans best defensive end versus the run and he is quietly having a very solid season.

While the passing game has struggled left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson will test Titans defensive end Kamerion Wimbley who currently leads the Titans in sacks with 6. Wimbley has settled into his new role with the Titans and is very good at getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. A toe injury has slowed him but this is still a matchup that is sure to be exciting to watch.

On the flip side, Jets defensive end Muhammed Wilkerson is having a great year particularly against the run and the Titans run game has struggled in that department. Calvin Pace is also having a pretty solid year and the Titans are likely to have their hands full with those two guys.

Safety LaRon Landry leads the team in tackles with 68 with middle linebacker David Harris a hair behind him at 66. Certainly the Jets defense has struggled but they are still ranked 3rd in the league versus the pass and that is an area the Titans are definitely a work in progress so I expect the Titans to struggle passing the ball.

A 3-4 defense can be a nightmare for any quarterback and particularly so for a young quarterback and this will be a real test for Jake Locker. The Jets defense is ranked 29th against the run and I feel certain the Titans will attempt to get their running game back on track as Chris Johnson's carries and numbers have dropped substantially in the last two games.

Finally, this is a game that will test the mettle of two head coaches who are without question on the hot seat and under siege. Rex Ryan and Mike Munchak have quarterbacks who are struggling offensively. Their teams are largely considered to have underperformed. The difference is that Ryan is coaching for a playoff spot and Munchak is coaching for his job. It is hard to say who has more at stake as this situation plays out on the national stage.

Take Me Down to Drop City - Sharona's Shots on Offense - Texans at Titans

AND ITS' ON SALE!! SCORE!!

Clifford Franklin: [Jimmy's putting stick-um on his hands] Coach, ain't that stuff illegal?
Jimmy McGinty: What are they going to do? Put you in football jail?

Its safe to say new offensive coordinator Dowell Loggain's first game was not a resounding success. He gets a pass from me on the game against the Texans though for several reasons. First, and foremost, he didn't get a lot of time to make changes or install anything. Second, he has a young quarterback who has only played in 12 NFL games. Third, his offensive line took a huge hit with the loss of starting right tackle David Stewart and starting left guard Steve Hutchinson. However, I will say it was an utter travesty that the Titans didn't utilize the shotgun more or go no huddle until 3:19 was left in the 3rd quarter. Also, Locker was rolled out very much and that is an area where he generally does well and where defenses have difficulty defending him.

Team Stat Comparison

	HOU	TEN
1st Downs	16	17
Passing 1st downs	11	12
Rushing 1st downs	5	2
1st downs from Penalties	0	3
3rd down efficiency	4-17	4-15
4th down efficiency	1-1	0-2
Total Plays	70	68
Total Yards	332	354
Yards per play	4.7	5.2
Total Drives	15	15
Passing	207	265
Comp - Att	21-35	21-45
Yards per pass	5.9	5.9
Interceptions thrown	0	3
Sacks - Yards Lost	0-0	6-44
Rushing	125	89
Rushing Attempts	35	17
Yards per rush	3.6	5.2
Red Zone (Made-Att)	2-2	0-2
Penalties	11-97	4-35
Turnovers	0	6
Fumbles lost	0	3
Interceptions thrown	0	3
Defensive / Special Teams TDs	0	0
Possession	33:48	26:12

Let's face it, Jake Locker didn't have his best game.

However, he gets a bit of a pass from me since he is a young quarterback who has only played in 12 games. Moreover, he simply didn't get much help. Locker was sacked 6 times and really I can only find fault with one or two. With a makeshift offensive line, high snaps and breakdowns in blocking, even the most seasoned quarterback is going to struggle.

The 5th sack was totally on him however and he simply must learn to be more aware of pressure and to throw the ball away in those situations. In his defense on the other sacks, his pocket was collapsing within 2 seconds. He also threw 3 interceptions, 2 of which were batted passes when he was under center and/or under pressure. The Titans need to work on him with his release point a bit but also I don't get why he is being forced under center so much so early. Finally, Locker simply can't fumble like he has been no matter how much pressure he is under.

 

The area where I do find fault is with the Titans receivers which as a group simply failed to play at an NFL quality level. I really love the site ProFootball Focus, and they count only 4 dropped passes in this game. Respectfully, I disagree. Other sources have counted 6 or 7 and I personally would even go as far as to say there were 8: Wright (2) Washington (2) Britt (1) and Cook (2)  Thompson (1). The Titan's "number one" wide receiver, Kenny Britt, has a catch rate of 48% per the website Football Outsiders. That is simply unacceptable. Jared Cook is in the top 15 in tight end drop rate per ProFootball Focus.

With the exception of Damien Williams, who really has made some nice plays this year, most particularly against the Texans before he got hurt, the Titans receivers could have performed much better. Kendall Wright gets a bit of a pass because he is a rookie but the other guys simply get out-muscled way too often. Jared Cook in particular. The Texans had the Titans' receivers in man coverage for most of the game and they still had trouble getting separation and were unable to snag balls that hit them in the hands. Shame.

In some fairness to the receivers there were several pass interferences that simply were not called.

Chris Johnson also had a largely unforgettable game against the Texans and it was for a variety of reasons. The Titans largely abandoned the run in the second half and CJ only got 3 carries. He was thrown to once as well. I do think the Titans should have tried to run a bit more but largely the run blocking was suffering and CJ's vision wasn't all that great anyway. I can't fault CJ for trying to make something but he does fail to follow his blockers on occasion and that can lead to loss of yardage. I will note I find it inexplicable that Quinn Johnson only played 4 snaps and Taylor Thompson only played 9 snaps. I see a trend here and if you read my blog on Jared Cook and the tight ends you know what I'm referencing.

Furthermore, with a makeshift offensive line CJ was getting a lot of negative yardage.

I am well aware of the comments CJ made this past week regarding his lack of carries. I am not going to quote them here. The only comment I have is that CJ's "MeJ" attitude surfaces at times when you just have to wonder if he cares more for his stats than he does whether the team wins or loses. Incredible talent that he is, it might be time to consider whether the money and attitude are worth it. I wrote earlier on the Titans cap situation and they face quite the decision with Chris Johnson.

Finally, I think the Titans have to acknowledge its time to put some serious effort into the future of the offensive line. In my opinion, this must be one of the bigger priorities during the offseason. I look for the Titans to draft an offensive lineman fairly high, and I am very high on Alabama's Chance Warmack, if the multi-talented Barrett Jones is already gone. In any event, this is an area to address and I look for the Titans to do so.