Locker Up - How Good Does the Titans Quarterback Need To Be in 2013?

Much of the Titans offseason talk has included discussion of third year quarterback Jake Locker, his "accuracy issue" and whether Ryan Fitzpatrick could push him for a starting job. In my "hot seat" list I did include Locker for reasons that are readily apparent in the article. Clearly Locker has to improve on his 2012 season. Having said that, I do believe there is potential for expectations to be too high for Locker. Why do you ask? Let me explain.

Locker was drafted in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft and played sparingly his first season. With limited snaps however, he looked good.

I think we often forget how good Locker looked that year and how excited everyone was about what they saw in his performance. Sadly, his performance in 2012 was marred by injury, not only to himself but on the offensive line. Add to that inconsistency in the running game and some inexcusable drops from his receivers and his 2012 looks bad.

Two things in particular concern me about Locker's 2012 and neither really have to do with "accuracy" per se. One, he had 11 batted passes and that didn't appear to be an issue in 2011 (he had 2). His release point does seem a little low and how much of that was attributed to guarding and his left shoulder injury is a question mark for me. Regardless, that is an area he must work on.

OUCH

Locker took 5 sacks in his rookie campaign out of 76 dropbacks. In 2012 he took 25 sacks out of 370 dropbacks. His most significant injury occurred when he was sacked by Glover Quin. Of course, this isn't all Locker's fault. Chris Johnson needs to block better for one. I also think former offensive coordinator Chris Palmers' system contributed. Still, Locker has to recognize pressure better and operate to protect himself and the football. He also fumbled the football 4 times (all of them lost) in 2012 usually at inopportune times (is there ever an opportune time?).

All of this leads to the question of how good Locker needs to be in 2013 to satisfy the coaching staff and owner Bud Adams. Really what the fans think isn't that important. They say winning cures all and certainly winning more games in 2013 will help. Here is where I think the Titans would like to see improvement in 2013.

TIME OF POSSESSION

The Titans time of possession stats in 2012 were beyond atrocious. I wrote about it extensively in my game blogs if you are interested. While not all a product of the passing game that certainly contributed and this is a stat I believe without a shadow of a doubt the Titans want to see improved.

RED ZONE SUCCESS

The Titans ranked 22nd in the NFL in red zone scoring percentage based on touchdowns only. This is down significantly from 2011 and it is beyond embarrassing that they ranked only 25% efficiency in the red zone at LP Field. Not coincidentally, they also finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring points at 23.

PASSING EFFICIENCY

I labeled this efficiency and not accuracy with good reason. I have said time and again I think the accuracy issue is overblown. I think the Titans would far prefer to see less sacks, less batted passes and more production than they care about whether Locker throws a pretty pass. The first I have alluded to but one more stat I find discouraging from Locker's 2012 season is that his yards per attempt fell dramatically. Of course, the 2011 season is a small sample size and 6.9 isn't terrible. Locker ranked 18th amongst starting NFL quarterbacks in yards per pass thrown but dang if that 8.2 from 2011 isn't enticing. The Titans passing game ranked 22nd in the NFL in passing yards per game.

OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION

Obviously this is a catchall phrase and area but really if the Titans score points and win games isn't the goal accomplished? The Titans in 2012 finished in the lower half of the NFL in points, passing yards, rushing yards and total offensive yards. Per Football Outsiders, the Titans offense was ranked 29th in the league in offensive efficiency. Offensive production doesn't occur in a vacuum and in order to have a successful one the Titans must operate on all cylinders. Of course he was injured, but I expect the Titans to make better use of Locker's ability to operate out of the pocket and make plays in 2013 whether passing or running.

What are your expectations for Jake Locker in 2013?


 

Titans Agree on a 2 year deal with Rob Bironas

Today, the Titans agreed on a 2 year deal for kicker Rob Bironas. Jim Wyatt reports the deal worth roughly 6.7 million. I asked Wyatt if he had contract details but heard no response. The Titans have not released any contract details.

I have repeatedly wrote that I thought the Titans should tag Bironas but it appeared the emphasis was on Jared Cook instead. When the Titans elected not to wage a battle over whether the franchise tag definition for Cook would be at wide receiver or tight end, I looked for them to tag Bironas. They didn't.

The franchise tag for place kickers was set at 2,977,000.00 while the transition tag was set at 2,700,000.00. I got my tag numbers from this excellent article NFL Franchise Tag 2013. Rob Bironas is 35 years old and while kickers generally have a longer shelf life it has been reported the Titans were considering a kicker in the draft. A backup plan is certainly not a bad option. Given the numbers involved, on the surface it appears the franchise tag would have been the wiser move.

UPDATE: According to Tom Gower the tag would have been the greater of the two franchise tags, or 120 percent of the player's salary, which would be $4.4 million. You can find Tom Gower's blog on that topic here Total Titans Franchise Tag Analysis.

2013 Titans Mock Draft Pre-Combine - Rounds 5 - 7

Round 5, Pick 135

At 6'4" and 242, Kiko Alonso is my favorite linebacker in this draft. A versatile defender, he will help bolster a position of strength on the Titans that clearly needs better depth at the position.I like him so much I might take him earlier, but if he is still here he is a lock to be my pick.

Kiko Alonso Draft Profile

 Alternative Pick:

The Titans need another running back to compliment Chris Johnson, and Christine Michael has the speed and power I want to see in a running back. Michael impressed with his athleticism during the Shrine Game and went immediately on my radar.

Christine Michael Draft Profile

****The Titans currently do not have a 6th round pick, having traded it to draft Scott Solomon in the 2012 draft.******

ROUND 7, PICK 200

Frankly, I don't expect Joseph Randall to be here in the 7th and if I gain a 6th round pick he would be on my radar (assuming I haven't already filled this spot earlier.)

Joseph Randall Draft Profile

ALTERNATIVE PICK 1:

A bit undersized at 6' 2" and 230, I love how Zavier Gooden plays bigger than his size. He caught my eye when I was scouting Sheldon Richardson, and if I get a chance to draft this guy I will gladly do so as I think he will add much needed depth at the outside linebacker position.

Zavier Gooden Draft Profile

ALTERNATIVE PICK 2:

D.C. Jefferson has been pegged as simply a blocking tight end but that is a misconception. At 6' 6" and 258, Jefferson has the ability to make moves in the passing game when given the chance. He simply didn't get a lot of opportunity to do so while at Rutgers.

D.C. Jefferson Draft Profile

2013 Titans Mock Draft - PreCombine Rounds 1 - 4

Here you go Titans fans. As promised, my first full mock draft of the 2013 offseason, 7 rounds of Titans draft prognostication. Acting as the Titans GM, I pick your new 2013 Tennessee Titans. Let me know what you think!

Round 1, Pick #10

With my first pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, I choose to shore up a position of need as well as pick one of the best offensive linemen in the 2013 draft. At 6' and 3" and 320 pounds, Alabama OG Warmack helped anchor one of the best offensive lines in college football during the 2012 college football season.

Warmack earned playing time as a true freshman and assumed the starting role the next season. He played left guard his entire career and helped lead the Crimson Tide's rushing attack and helping them win 3 college football National Championships. 

Chance Warmack Draft Profile

Alternative Pick:

 At 6' 4" and 295, Missouri Defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson fits exactly what the Titans have traditionally liked to do and with former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams assisting the defense again, this pick may be even more likely than ever before. A 3 tech DT, Sheldon is an explosive guy who can shed off blockers and wreak havoc in the backfield  he is exactly what the Titans need to fix their defensive woes.

Sheldon Richardson Draft Profile

NOTE: My draft philosophy is to scout players I think will fit the system and not necessarily focus on what the draft experts think or where most people think a player will get drafted. If a guy is the best player on your board and fits what you do you take him when you get the chance.

Round 2, Pick 40

I will gladly snag offensive lineman Barrett Jones with my second pick of the 2013 draft and be thrilled this special player fell to me. A Bruce Matthews clone, Jones has played, and excelled at, every single position on the offensive line. I know my offensive line has suffered the loss of the veteran leadership, and All Pro skills, that it lost when the Titans opted to let Kevin Mawae walk. Jones is not only a good player but he is exactly what the offensive line needs at its center position.

The Titans haven't drafted two starting offensive linemen since the 2005 draft when we drafted our two bookend tackles. We took Michael Roos in the 2nd round, and Dave "Big Country" Stewart in the 4th round. Now its time to add two more marque players and 1st round pick Chance Warmack and Jones fit the bill. At 6' 5" and 302, Jones and fellow Tide draftee Warmack led a rushing attack that allowed Eddie Lacy and TJ Yeldon to both eclipse 1000 yards in the 2012 season. Collectively, the Tide rushed for 3185 yards.

Barrett Jones Draft Profile

Bonus links:

Bruce Matthews Player Profile

Kevin Mawae Player Profile 

Alternative Pick:

At 6'4" and 260, Montgomery is an all down defensive end who can power his way into the backfield. A fairly polished player, he lies more on strength than speed and with the proper coaching could play both strongside defensive end and weakside.

Sam Montgomery Draft Profile 

Round 3, Pick 70

With the 70th pick in the draft, I now turn my attention to another area that needs addressing and pick former Georgia Bulldog strongside safety Shawn Williams. At 6'1" and 220 pounds, Williams has the speed, physicality and tackling ability I want to see from my secondary players.

Shawn Williams Draft Profile

Alternative Pick:

BONUS TANK CARRADINE PICTURE FOR THE LADIES!!!

If he is there I gladly snag Tank Carradine at this spot, assuming I haven't already taken Montgomery, and know that I have added an impact player on the defensive line. A bit raw, but Carradine could easily work his way into the rotation early on.

Cornelius "Tank" Carradine Draft Profile 

Round 4, Pick 104

Marcus Lattimore is a steal here and while I draft him here if he is ready to play in the 2013 season. Lattimore is exactly the running back I think can compliment Chris Johnson and improve the Titans running game. Durability is an issue but I will have him checked out thoroughly and if he passes medical testing he will be an impact player on the offense.

Marcus Lattimore Draft Profile

ALTERNATIVE PICK:

At 6'3" and 320, Sylvester Williams is a perfect defensive tackle for the 4-3 system the Titans run. Issues regarding his technique and conditioning allow him to drop to later rounds where the Titans jump on the opportunity to add this potential game changer.

Sylvester Williams Draft Profile

There you have it my draft selections for rounds 1 through 4. What are your thoughts? Who would you pick and why?

Which Titan on Defense Will Step Up and Lead?

I addressed which Titan would step up on offense here Which Titan Will Step Up on Offense?. Now lets talk about which Titan will step up on defense. In my opinion, there are more likely candidates on this side of the ball than on offense. I'm not sure what that says about the Titans defense of 2012. Draw your own conclusions. I didn't really see anyone step up, in any major way at least, on the defensive side of the ball. So who are my prime choices? Here they are in alphabetical order.

Linebacker Akeem Ayers has really had two solid seasons since the Titans drafted him in the second round in 2011. Ayers has led the team in tackles since his rookie year, playing primarily at the linebacker position. A versatile young player, he can also line up as a pass rusher, and has 8 career sacks. He is an engaging guy with a great personality and seems a natural choice to be a leader on defense.

Rookie linebacker Zach Brown had an outstanding rookie campaign for the Titans. He was third on the team in tackles with 93 and added 5.5 sacks to boot. All this despite playing in limited packages until assuming the starting role in week 8. Need more evidence the rookie is poised to be a leader on this defense? Watch the last game of the season when he had a very serious coming out party. The team was lethargic and lifeless until Brown intercepted a Chad Henne pass late in the second quarter and returned it 79 yards for a pick six.

Jason McCourty is a guy I think the Titans need to step up especially in the defensive backfield. The Titans have sorely missed Chris Hope's leadership in that group, and while safety Michael Griffin has greatly improved in the leadership category, he has not proven to be the leader the Titans need in the secondary. McCourty had a very nice 2012 season and is poised in my opinion to be a really good cornerback in the National Football League. Can he step up and be a leader in the secondary? That is my only question about him.

Defensive end Derrick Morgan has finally recovered from the ACL injury he suffered in his rookie season in 2010. The 3rd year player had a very good 2012 season, leading the team in sacks with 6.5. Morgan carries a quiet confidence onto the field, doesn't talk much and came across as a guy who prefers to let his play speak on the field. Is Morgan capable of taking that demeanor and translating it into an effective leadership amongst his peers? I think he can.

Fellow defensive end Kamerion Wimbley is another good candidate to be a leader on the Titans defense. The Titans added the 7 year veteran in the 2011 offseason. Like Morgan, Wimbley projects a quiet business like confidence. Not to take anything away from any of the other defensive players, but Wimbley has a motor that never quits and while it took a while to adjust to his new role in the Titans defense, he finished the season with 6 sacks. He brings it every play and has exactly the kind of attitude this Titans defense needs.

Honorable Mentions:

I already mentioned Michael Griff and I would also add Jordan Babineaux to the list of possible candidates. Obviously, the problem is that safety was the weakest position on the Titans defense last season and neither guy is assured of a role in 2013. Still, both guys have shown leadership qualities.Sen'Derrick Marks is also a guy I think could step up and bring leadership qualities to the team. Unfortunately, he is a free agent and it is unclear whether he will return to the Titans in 2013.

Note:

I didn't put Colin McCarthy on this list simply because he has already been a leader on the defense. Unfortunately, his injuries have prevented him from being on the field and that void showed in the Titans defense last season.

Which Titan on Offense Will Step Up and Lead?

The Titans lack leadership and direction. This is hardly a surprise to anyone who follows the team or pays any attention to the NFL. Is this coaching? Is it personnel? Both? Yeah, I think I will have to go a bit with both. In my opinion it's pretty clear leadership on the field needs to be better. Who are the likely candidates? Let's take a look.

On offense, the clear choice has to be Jake Locker. Am I right? The starting quarterback is generally a leader, if not THE leader, on offense and Locker has already shown he has those attributes. The Titans are hopeful he will stay healthy in 2013 and if he can he should be the clear leader on offense.

Are there any other candidates? I think so.

Nate Washington has proven he can be a dependable veteran and go to guy for the Titans. Was he a leader last year? I think its debatable. Can he be a better leader? I think without question he can be a better leader both on the field and in the locker room. I would like to see him be more vocal with the young receivers.

This may seem an unlikely choice because offensive lineman AND he is super quiet. I am not of the opinion you have to be a loudmouth to be a leader. Roos is the best offensive lineman on the Titans roster and one of the best left tackles in the game. He comes across as intelligent and his knowledge of the game particularly the offensive aspect is unquestionable.

This might seem another unlikely candidate since it is rare you would find a backup player, much less the backup quarterback, a leader on the team. Hasselbeck can pull this off. His accomplishments in the game speak volumes and he has a proven track record as a leader. Finally, Hasselbeck is a smart guy who is not afraid to voice his opinions. He has embraced whatever role the Titans have asked of him and been all class about it.

Honorable Mentions:

The Titans offensive line was in disarray in 2012 but Fernando Velasco was a bright spot. Unfortunately,  he is a free agent and there has been no information on whether the Titans will bring him back. Rookie wide receiver Kendall Wright was also a bright spot and is also a likely candidate to be a leader on offense.

Those are my choices. What say you? Who would you choose and why?

Kenny Britt - Here's Your Sign

As you probably know by now, Titans wide receiver Kenny Britt is once again in the crosshairs of a police investigation. The facts remain sketchy but what remains clear is that Britt is once again wanted for questioning in a police investigation originating in New Jersey in the wake of a stabbing that led Britt to drop the currently unidentified person off at the hospital. Add a shooting and possible other side issues and the issue appears as seedy as it sounds.

Britt's lengthy troubles in Jersey are well known, and well documented but you won't find them here. Mostly because I don't care to look back at the litany of issues he has brought to the Titans and I don't feel compelled to be ticked off at the moment. If you feel compelled to do so, I would suggest checking www.ProFootballTalk.com or www.Tennessean.com where I am certain you can find them. Just knowing about this one is enough to bring me to this conclusion. Enough is enough.

As frustrating as it seems, this might just be a blessing in disguise for the Titans. Britt clearly has nothing between his ears and I don't see that changing any time soon. His talent has been enough to make the Titans overlook the laundry list of incidents where involving late nights, sirens, police, and uber stupidity. This latest incident might be the nail in the coffin of this incredible waste of god given talent.

Dear Bud Adams: Attitude Reflects Leadership

It was a miserable season in Tennessee no matter how you slice it. The Titans, coming off a 9-7 record in 2011 struggled to win 6 games and were blown out repeatedly, losing by double digits in most games and struggling to score points or stop other opponents from scoring.  Coming off the bye week, the team lost to a one win Jacksonville Jaguars team and were grossly outplayed and out-coached by the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers. The Titans won one division game in 2012.

To add insult to injury, the Titans were unable to defend their home stadium, winning only 4 games at LP Field. Once a bastion of wins for Titans teams, LP Field was the site of one of the team's worst losses since moving to Nashville, a 51-20 annihilation by the Chicago Bears on November 4 where Adams noted there were more Bears fans than Titans fans in the stands. Attendance was so poor the stadium wasn't even half full on the last game of the season but Adams wouldn't know that since he didn't bother to show up himself.

So how does Adams respond to the dismal season and the waning support and interest by fans? He fires the executive VP and COO of the Titans! Why you might ask? Mike Reinfeldt didn't deliver Peyton Manning to Adams on a silver platter. Yeah that makes sense and will totally fix the situation with the Titans. Am I right?

An organization is only as good as the leadership at the top and Adams has long been viewed as a big part of the issues plaguing first the Oilers in Houston and now the Titans in Nashville. Adams has a problem taking responsibility for his actions and that has certainly been reflected by the attitude of many Titans, especially some players who were expected to provide a boost and leadership in the past.

Adams never wants to admit he is wrong and you see that in past decision-making. Exhibit A: Young, Vince. He let that situation simmer and boil over to the point it divided the team and ultimately cost him millions of dollars, a high draft pick and longtime coach Jeff Fisher. 

For the record I like head coach Mike Munchak. I think he is a standup guy and a complete departure from the lack of accountability shown by his owner. He was thrown into an unenviable situation taking over for Jeff Fisher and I think he has done his best to coach the Titans to the best of his ability. However, the coaching in 2012 was substandard and the Titans underperformed badly. Adams himself acknowledged this more than once.

Despite that, once again Adams can't or won't acknowledge that perhaps he made a mistake. He will sacrifice another year to an experiment that may or may not work without consideration of the effect. The promise of changes to staffing doesn't inspire much confidence since that means the current situation may  become even more entrenched. I realize Munchak has only had 2 years but nothing about this season inspires you to think the Titans are headed in the right direction.

Now would have been the perfect opportunity to move on and hire an experienced coaching staff but that would require accountability that is sadly lacking. Attitude reflects leadership Mr. Adams. Where is yours?

On Mike Munchak's Job Security

Beat writer Jim Wyatt recently reported that Titans head coach Mike Munchak has two years remaining on his contract meaning he is signed through the 2014 season and not the 2013 season like his coaching staff. Munchak’s annual salary is reported to be between $2.75 million and $3 million. This means Munchak is safe for one more year at least right?

Not so fast. Regardless of whether Munchak makes changes to his lame duck coaching staff, his job is clearly not safe. I like Munchak he comes across as a very personable fella and a class act. Yet, no one watching the Titans thinks they are a well coached football team. People I respect who know football have privately told me the Titans are very poorly coached in most positions. Count me as one who certainly believes it is a good possibility that Titans owner Bud Adams will find a way to part ways with Munchak after a dismal 2012 season.

Adams is largely viewed as a tightwad but he is clearly willing to spend money when he believes the situation calls for it. It was largely reported Adams paid then head coach Jeff Fisher $8 million dollars to part ways with him. Further, a good case could certainly be made that Munchak's contract could be terminated "for cause." In any event, his contract certainly isn't prohibitive to moving on.

I also disagree that an extra year gives Munchak more flexibility in bringing in coaching staff. I just find it hard to believe a good coordinator or up and coming assistant would be willing to risk taking a flier on a one year deal when there are likely to be far more attractive options available. In fact, in my mind this makes it even more likely that Munchak could get the boot since obtaining quality staff is going to be an issue and there seems to be little justification to expend money delaying the inevitable.

 

Clearly Adams is the wild card here and what a wild card. Adams is pushing 90 and surely he understands his time is limited. While a good case can be made for "staying the course" an equally compelling argument can be made for going out and spending the money to get a proven winner in at the head coaching position and to make a push for a Superbowl while Adams is still around to celebrate it.

Big Zach Attack - Sharona's Shots on Defense - Titans vs Jaguars

As I mentioned in my blog on the Titans offense, head coach Mike Munchak relieved offensive coordinator Chris Palmer of his duties on Monday. He stated he was unlikely to make any further changes and I think that's true barring a serious meltdown on defense in the remaining games. However in truth, Munchak himself may not survive.

Does Jerry Gray survive the offseason? At one point I would have said no, but the Titans defense is playing better. Against the Jags, the Titans had 7 sacks for a loss of 40 yards. One can only view that as a positive even though ultimately the Titans lost this game. Jerry Gray does need to get his act together on his blitz packages as he keeps leaving a soft spot in the middle that opposing offenses keep exploiting.

Having said that, the Titans have been much better at getting pressure and getting takeaways. Alterraun Verner had an interception against the Jags created by pressure from Sen'Derrick Marks.

As I began preparing this blog, I promised myself I wouldn't make it about rookie linebacker Zach Brown, who is just playing phenomenally. As the tape continued to roll and I continued to watch, I ended up changing my mind. I mean why not? He deserves it for the hard work he has put in and the tremendous job he is doing as a rookie. So, welcome to my ode to how well he is playing.

Not only did Brown  have that sack, he led the Titans in tackles with 10 tackles including 1 tackle for a loss, 1.5 sacks, and 2 quarterback hits. Since taking over at OLB, the Titans have manned the middle of the field for the most part. One of the more impressive things about Brown, and Akeem Ayers as well, is their versatility. I note this in  my blog on the Colts game where I do a play by play on the last touchdown in regulation. Brown and Ayers interchange seamlessly at Sam and Will. This versatility has allowed the Titans to make great use of their speed and quickness. Brown has zoomed up the list of Titans defenders in terms of defensive stats.

Finally, I continue to be impressed with how instinctual a player Brown is in both coverage and run support. Despite pre-draft reports to the contrary, he does not shy away from contact and he isn't afraid to lay the smackdown. He is turning into exactly the type of impact player the Titans envisioned when they drafted him.

Another remarkable play here too.

I am excited to watch that guy develop and continue to be a playmaker for the Titans for years to come.

Final Notes:
The Titans defensive line played really well in terms of pressure; however, the defensive ends struggled mightily against the run. It was nice to see the team sack the Jaguars 7 times though. It is also nice to see Michael Griffin continue to improve as he added a sack of his own. One major downside I took away from this game is how much Colin McCarthy is struggling right now. He simply had a terrible game and at this point health has become a big issue.

Tennessee Defensive
	TACKLES				MISC
	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS	TD
Z. Brown	10	8	1.5	1	0	2	0
M. Griffin	6	6	1	1	0	2	0
J. Casey	4	4	1	1	0	1	0
A. Ayers	4	4	1	1	0	1	0
J. Babineaux	4	4	0	0	0	0	0
J. McCourty	4	3	0	0	0	0	0
C. Sensabaugh	3	3	0	0	0	0	0
C. McCarthy	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
D. Morgan	2	2	0	0	0	2	0
R. Mouton	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
S. Marks	2	2	0	0	1	1	0
K. Wimbley	2	1	1.5	1	0	2	0
K. Klug	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
K. Wright	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
R. Johnson	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
T. Shaw	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. Locker	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. Verner	1	1	0	0	2	0	0
T. Thompson	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
M. Martin	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
S. Solomon	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	53	49	7	6	3	13	0